I’m not saying that would be a bad thing, per se, but it would explain why we see the Browns fielding injured players when they have perfectly good backups on the roster. After all, it takes a special kind of crazy to put Jedrick Wills on the field and expect him to do his very difficult job while hopping on one foot.

David Goggins is a retired Navy SEAL, ultra-marathoner, and sort of a motivational speaker type of guy. I haven’t read his book, and don’t pretend to be knowledgeable of his philosophy, but I have heard him on Joe Rogan’s podcast (embedded below), so I am familiar with his approach. And it strikes as masochistic. Here is a quote:

“Pain unlocks a secret doorway in the mind, one that leads to both peak performance, and beautiful silence.”

Right now, Baker Mayfield is wracked with pain from multiple injuries, but he soldiers on Goggins-style. So, has he achieved peak performance? Not hardly. Just the opposite, actually.

The reason why I think the Browns are now Gogginites is the way both use the word: “accountable.” The Browns have a slogan: “smart, tough, and accountable.” And it has always struck me as odd because nobody seemed to be held accountable for anything. Here is Goggins talking about his “accountability mirror” concept:

This is different from the normal usage of the word “accountable” where if you are responsible for something and you screw up, you are subsequently held accountable, and punished by an authority such as your boss, your priest, or a judge.

So, Goggins has a different usage of accountable. And so do the Browns. For example, over a year ago, it was statistically proven that Odell Beckham, Jr. was wrecking the chemistry of the Browns’ offense. And yet, the team continued to employ him as they plunged from a playoff team to last place in their division. Nobody in the franchise (that we know of) has been held accountable for that incredibly bad decision despite the Browns constantly trumpeting that they are smart, tough, and accountable. Because when the Browns say “accountable” they have in mind the Goggins technique of shouting at yourself in the mirror.

So, have the Browns elevated pain-seeking above winning football games? It sure looks that way. Since he was benched for the Denver game, Baker has completed 58.8% of his throws during the subsequent four games. That’s a terrible number. Meanwhile, the uninjured Case Keenum has completed 64.4% of his attempts (versus the Broncos & Patriots). While that is below the league average, it is substantially better than Baker.

We know that, when healthy, Baker can play at an elite level. But when smashed up, not so much. Logically, one would play Keenum, give Baker some rest, and then in two or three weeks, if he looks good in practice, put him in again. The problem is that the concepts of “rest” and “healing” are frowned upon in a Goggins milieu.

Is the Goggins approach suitable for NFL teams? Well, for one thing, NFL players don’t have to seek pain; they get plenty of it all season long. Secondly, Goggins is an ultra-marathoner, and such athletes run very slowly while NFL players run very fast. According this site, ultra-marathoners run at a tortoise-like speed of 13 minutes per mile. The two sports are very different.

If the Browns want to castigate their reflection in the mirror every morning, I say: have at it. But when an injured player’s performance suffers, I say: put the fucking back-up in and win the fucking game!

Note: Baker is tough, but you don’t get points for that in the NFL.

Note: this reminds me of when Howard Stern came under the spell of the “Getting Things Done” cult years ago.

Note: NFL players are constantly lauded for playing through pain, but nobody ever mentions the game-day Toradol injections.

Note: Last week, I urged the Browns to increase the number of rushing plays, and they did, to great effect. They should continue this policy versus the Ravens. Not only are the Browns built for running the ball, but they insist on fielding a smashed-up QB. Last week, the Colts ran the ball 69.7% of the time, and smashed the Bills 41-16. So, let’s see the Browns take their rushing percentage up over 70%. Unleash the three-headed monster!

Note: why not just hang a tire from a rope and have Baker and Keenum throw balls through it? The guy with the best accuracy gets the start.

Note: according to reports, Donovan Peoples-Jones has been riding a stationary bike since his groin injury is preventing him from practicing. Well, it just so happens that I have a groin injury of my own. Guess how I got it? Cycling. Without crashing, you can still easily injure your muscles and joints while cycling – especially while racing. DPJ could probably rehab faster just by watching TV all day.

Note: a perplexed softball player once told me that he could hit longer home-runs when he did not lift weights in-between games. I introduced him to the concept of over-training. I would bet that the vast majority of NFL players are chronically over-trained.

Note: and finally, D’Ernest Johnson had another good outing versus the Lions with 26 yards on 5 carries for a 5.2 average. DJ is now a nose ahead of Kareem Hunt on the leader board. Chubb is #1 with 6.99 YPC, DJ is #6 with 5.25, and Kareem is #7 at 5.23. (Hunt only has 8 more carries than DJ now.) That’s THREE Browns in the top 10! The very definition of a three-headed monster!

The NFL is like a demolition derby where drivers crash their cars into each other until only one is able to move. The Browns were flying high going into Boston on Sunday, but then Bill Belichick crashed his junker into the Browns and knocked them clean over. The Browns never saw it coming.

How did the Browns get blindsided like that? Well, it’s really pretty simple. After Odell Beckham, Jr. bailed out, and the Browns offense went on a tear verses the Bengals, there was a celebratory atmosphere in Berea. So much so that the Browns “made it rain” on Wyatt Teller and Joel Bitonio.

Not only was the team elated, but their Week 10 foe had a longer injury list than the Browns did. For once, it looked like the Browns would actually have a health advantage.

But of course, the NFL’s talent-parity means that talent is rarely the deciding factor. And psychology is actually far more important. You can’t play like a cornered animal if you don’t feel like you are cornered. Parading around, throwing money in the air is just not a good way to prepare for your next game. Teller & Bitonio are deserving, of course, but their extensions should have been held for the bye week.

We see surprise bitch-slappings like this all the time in the NFL, and we will continue to see them for as long as the league maintains talent-parity. It’s embarrassing, but inevitable. At the moment, the Patriots are riding high and are now more susceptible to being upset by the Falcons on Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Browns are definitely feeling like a cornered animal, and are far more likely to destroy the Lions than they otherwise would be.

Having said that, Baker did play badly, and it looks like his multiple injuries have caught up with him. I’d like to see him get some rest and go into the first Ravens game refreshed.

Pop Quiz

Patriots rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson ran roughshod over the Browns defense which gave up 452 yards, but who had more yardage, Stevenson or D’Ernest Johnson? Answer: Stevenson had 114 all-purpose yards while DJ had 157. Not only that, but DJ averaged 5.2 yards per carry versus Stevenson’s 5.0. Stevenson & DJ were tied on rushing yardage at 100 and 99, but DJ poured on the passing yardage with 58 compared to Stevenson’s 14.

D’Ernest Johnson Gets No Respect

Clearly, DJ was the only bright spot in the debacle, and yet all people could talk about was how the Browns offense just doesn’t work without Nick Chubb. Not so. There was no drop-off at the position. On the Brown’s first drive, DJ had carries of 5,10,24,and 19 yards and brought the Browns to the 2 yard line of the Patriots. That’s 14.5 YPC! Could Nick Chubb have done it better? Could he have punched the ball into the end zone instead of being stopped on the 2 yard line? Perhaps, but even if there was a drop-off at the position, it was in infinitesimal one.

Back on October 21st, I tweeted that the Browns’ two-headed monster had sprouted a third head. And indeed DJ has only improved since then. As of Week 10, DJ’s stats now exceed those of Kareem Hunt. Not only that, but with Hunt injured, DJ’s carries have come up close to Kareem’s. DJ is now averaging 5.3 YPC on 56 attempts compared to Hunt’s 5.2 YPC on 69 attempts. DJ’s average pass-reception yardage also exceeds Hunt’s by 8.5 to 8.1 though DJ only has half the receptions that Hunt does.

Imagine this: the Browns promote Hunt to slot receiver so that he can be on the field more. Then they promote DJ to the “spelling Nick Chubb” role. Maybe you have to divert some Jarvis Landry targets to Hunt, but guess what? Hunt will get you way more YAC than Landry will.

Having a 3-headed monster is a fantastic development, yet DJ has received few accolades. For example, I just listened to a 48-minute long “Orange and Brown Talk” podcast and they literally didn’t even mention DJ. But not only that, the haters at Cleveland.com have actually poured derision on DJ. Can you imagine? You have to have a heart of stone (not to mention a low IQ) to hate on somebody like D’Ernest Johnson.

But make no mistake; the emergence of D’Ernest Johnson might be the single most significant event for the franchise this year.

How to Beat Stefanski

All that you have to do to defeat the Browns’ world-beating rushing attack is to crowd the line-of-scrimmage. Stefanski will give up on running the ball, which the entire team is built around, and pass for the rest of the game.

If you are behind by two touchdowns, does that mean you have to give up running the ball? Maybe for some teams, because as they plod down the field with 4.3 yards-per-carry, they burn too much clock. But exactly how long does it take Nick Chubb to run a 70-yard touchdown? 10 seconds? Is that too much? Apparently.

Here’s the thing about crowding the line-of-scrimmage: if the offense is able to open just one little hole, the running back can burst through and run for a touchdown. You see this a lot in the red zone: all the big-bodies are in there, and then the running back pops through a hole for the TD. But if this play is transported to the other end of the field, the running back goes for 98 yards because there is no secondary!

We see plays like this sometimes early in a game when the defense is bound and determined to stop Nick Chubb. And they do – for a while. Then Chubb pops one for a huge gain. So, he has runs of 3, 1, -2, 0, 4, 3, -1, 75. What’s so wrong with that? Think of the defense as a door, and the o-line as a battering ram. Sometimes it takes a while to break down the door. But once it is broken, the Browns have four guys who can blow through it: Chubb, Hunt, Johnson, and Felton. To save wear-and-tear on the running backs, you could even have the initial battering be done by your fullbacks.

Taking the “playing to your strengths” theme to its extreme, you deploy 8 linemen, the QB, a fullback, and a running back. You run the ball on every play. If you go three-and-out, you do it again next series. And you keep on doing it, with no passing at all, for however long it takes for the running back to pop through on a chunk play. In such a scheme, the QB doesn’t do much, so why not replace him with a second fullback? So, you have Janovich and Stanton line up behind the guards, and then the ball is snapped directly to Chubb. Imagine you are a linebacker and you see Teller & Bitonio coming at you. Then, behind them, Janovich & Stanton, and behind them, Nick Chub. Terrifying!

If you can move the ball, then you wear out the defense, break their will, and trample them for the rest of the game. If you can’t move the ball, then they are the better team. It’s like a one-round boxing match: things get settled quickly. More often than not, the Browns should win because they are built for it.

In other words, Stefanski should stop giving up so easily and be more creative with the strength he has built into his team. Right now, the Browns are built for running, but wind up throwing, which doesn’t make a lot of sense when you think about it. Over the last three games, the Browns rank at #17 for team rushing plays (40.74%). So, there are *16* teams in the NFL that run the ball more than the Browns! There’s your trouble right there.

Curiously, the Ravens have done the same thing as the Browns. Formerly a smash-mouth offense, they are the #18 rushing team right behind the Browns over the last three weeks. And they have done badly during that period. They got smashed by the Bengals, squeaked by the Vikings in overtime, and beat by the Dolphins.

Note: see this site for stats on the last 3 weeks.

Odell is Full of Shit

ESPN’s Lisa Salters reports:

“I spoke to Odell Beckham Jr. on the phone last night, he told me he didn’t really want to talk about what happened in Cleveland and what led to his release there,” Salters said. “But he did say that every detail was crazy to him, he said, ‘I don’t have words for it. It stinks. It was never intended.’ And he said he never could have envisioned any of it. Beckham said he doesn’t blame anyone, he enjoyed his time in Cleveland…

Just some more passive/aggressive gibberish. Meanwhile, everybody knows exactly what happened. OBJ’s father launched a social-media attack on Baker Mayfield and OBJ failed to tell him to stand down thereby tacitly condoning the attack. “Never intended?” Bullshit. Note to Matthew Stafford: you’re next.

Meanwhile, in OBJ’s grand debut with the Rams on Monday Night Football, he caught two balls and had exactly one yard of YAC.

Oddly, during his ESPN2 Monday Night Football show, Eli Manning was asked why things went wrong for Odell Beckham, Jr. in Cleveland. Being OBJ’s first victim, you would think Eli would have an informative take on the situation. But he did not. In fact, he doesn’t appear to have followed OBJ’s career at all.

Notes

Note: last week, before the New England game, I highlighted this article. What happened next? The Browns got manhandled in the trenches by the Patriots.

Note: the beat-down at the hands of the Patriots reminded me of those Freddie Kitchens games in 2019 where he would brilliantly script the first 15 plays, and then…nothing. The other team would make a few adjustments, and the Browns would get beat. For example, Week 1 versus the Titans: the Browns scored a TD on their first drive, and then got crushed 43-13.

Note: in baseball, they say that hitting is contagious. I think the same thing happens in football; and the opposite. So, when a team is behind, everybody tenses up, and receivers start dropping balls. So, I’m not too worried about the drops and fumbles the Browns had on Sunday.

Note: after Baker threw his interception, Anthony Schwartz came in for the tackle like a lightening bolt, but when he arrived he was brushed off like so much dandruff. See the 3:08 mark in this video. I don’t think Schwartz is going to be breaking many tackles in the future.

On October 25, 2020, God, in his infinite wisdom, threw a lightening bolt down at Odell Beckham’s left knee, knocking him out for the season. That Act of God cleared the way for the Browns to make a deep run into the playoffs.

Make no mistake, nobody in the franchise gets credit for that stroke of luck. God could have just as easily acted in favor of a different team. The Browns were very lucky in 2020 because there is no way in hell the franchise would have acted to eject the football poison known as OBJ.

Indeed, the Browns brought OBJ back for the 2021 season, and gave him more snaps and targets than any other receiver on the team. They did this in the face of iron-clad stats that proved beyond any shadow of a doubt that OBJ’s presence somehow discombobulated their franchise quarterback, Baker Mayfield.

Everybody in the football world knew about this, what we might call “negative chemistry” or “anti-chemistry.” A chimpanzee could have figured it out, but not the Browns.

In fact, right up to OBJ’s sneak attack on Baker Mayfield last week, Head Coach Stefanski was vowing to try harder at getting OBJ some stats. He had no clue, and neither did Andrew Berry, Paul DePodesta, The Haslams, or Baker for that matter. When OBJ stuck the shiv into Baker’s belly, he achieved perfect tactical surprise. Nobody saw it coming.

In fact, if memory serves, Freddy Kitchens was the only guy in the organization that ever criticized OBJ. Freddy publicly castigated OBJ when he didn’t show up for practice. He was the only one that got it right.

Stefanski, Berry, and DePodesta are lauded for their Ivy League pedigrees, but I wonder: were these guys legacy admissions? Because what they did was just plain dumb.

Remember when the meme: “The Browns are better without Beckham” arrived on the scene? And reporters asked about it during press conferences? And everybody in the franchise said that those critics didn’t know football? That they didn’t understand all the magical things that OBJ did on the field? Well, they were wrong. The critics were right. And when random critics such as myself know better than the highly-paid staff of the Browns, you’ve got a serious problem.

So, should the entire front office be broomed? No, because you have to ask: “compared to what?” How would other franchises have fared if infected with the sinister presence of OBJ? Probably not much better. However, DePodesta is the famous analytics guy, and if he didn’t discover the problem before ESPN Stats & Information did, and didn’t take the findings to the Haslams, and recommend OBJ’s termination, then he should definitely be allowed to return to baseball. On the subject of OBJ, the front-office was profoundly anti-analytic, just totally ignoring the most glaring stats imaginable. I wonder if PFF grades analytics guys. If I were them, I would give DePodesta a zero-point-zero.

Remember, it wasn’t just OBJ causing the Browns to lose games. It was OBJ stunting the growth of the team’s franchise quarterback. And that is a very grave sin. At least one head needs to roll. After all, the team’s very motto is “smart, tough, and accountable.” Where, may I ask, is the accountability in this nuclear-grade debacle?

And now, God has acted again on behalf of your Cleveland Browns. Remember, nobody in the franchise ejected OBJ from the team. It was OBJ himself, under divine guidance, who restored the Browns to greatness by ejecting his own ass. Those Browns you saw pummeling the Bengals on Sunday? Those were the real Browns who would have remained shrouded from view indefinitely without God acting on their behalf.

Also, it’s not a coincidence that the defense played their best game of the year. OBJ’s voodoo affected the entire team, not just Baker and the offense. Going into the game, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase were the premiere passing duo in the league, and the Browns just wrecked them. Expect more of that. The vision of DC Joe Woods is now manifest.

So, with the Browns having embarked upon a third Golden Age, why am I so critical of the franchise? Answer: because they are still fucking up on a grand scale. On the surface, it seems like a super-talented roster, and an all-star coaching staff would be enough to win the Super Bowl, but it is not. There are also the issues of discipline, and strength & conditioning, both of which the Browns are the worst at.

On the issue of discipline, take a look at this (you need to click through to see the Browns way at the bottom):

What has been the net effect of penalties on each team in 2021?

The Browns have been hurt the most by penalties this year, losing a net of 3.5 EPA per game on penalties called in their games.

Data: #nflverse pic.twitter.com/4vdWP40jOq

— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) November 9, 2021

On the issue of injuries, strength, and conditioning, see this article: Cleveland Browns strength and conditioning program is failing.

What the hell do the Browns have on their training table? Coffee and donuts in the morning? Mac & Cheese, and veggie burgers for lunch? Like the article linked above says, it’s just not normal to have as many injuries as the Browns do. Something is seriously wrong there.

Note: OBJ wants a Super Bowl ring, and as soon as the Browns dropped into last place in the division, he pulled the rip cord and bailed out. Ironically, his exit rejuvenated the Browns and instantly transformed them into a Super Bowl contender! Take that OBJ!

Note: Baker is sad to lose his friend, but OBJ is not done with Baker or Stefanski. He needs to blame them for his lackluster performance when he is negotiating his next contract (assuming that there is a franchise stupid enough to employ him). So, Baker needs to wrap himself in magazines to absorb the rapid stabbings like you see in prison movies.

Note: OBJ Liberation Day! Mark November 5, 2022 on your calendar as the first anniversary of OBJ Liberation Day! The Browns will have won many football games by then, and celebration will definitely be in order. Without the discombobulating presence of one Odell Beckham, Jr. the considerable talent, skill, and coaching prowess possessed by your Cleveland Browns will break free to fulfill its lofty potential.

Note: Is it a coincidence that the Browns extended Wyatt Teller’s contract on the very day that OBJ hit waivers? No, it is not. That was the Browns sending a message to OBJ that they are now wisely using OBJ’s money to invest in a much more valuable player.

Note: In this idiotic article, OBJ thrall, Jared Mueller of USA Today says: “Beckham gives the Browns the best chance for more explosive plays…” Really? It seems to me it was just the opposite: in the very next game after OBJ’s exit, the Browns made nothing but explosive plays, and not just on offense! Advice for OBJ thralls: seek professional help; tell the therapist that you need to be deprogrammed out of a personality cult. I am not joking.

Note: Like I said in my previous blog: “Browns fans rejoice!” That motherfucker is Gone, Daddy, Gone!

Browns fans rejoice! A third Golden Age is upon us! While it is still possible that the Browns will cuck-out and give Odell Beckham, Jr. another chance to punch them in the balls, it looks like the team will finally shake off this evil albatross.

And we know what happens next. We know from history that when OBJ leaves the field, Baker Mayfield spreads his wings and soars to elite status. Not even the hardest of hard core OBJ cultists will deny it anymore. We have the receipts.

Remember the Baker Mayfield of the second half of 2020? Yeah, that guy. He’s coming back! Holy shit! It’s really happening! It’s too bad this third Golden Age will kick off on the road, but Cincinnati is a great place for the blessed event since that’s where Golden Age II began last year.

Golden Age I – 2018 – Baker’s rookie year. OBJ still on Giants.
Dark Age I – 2019 – Browns Regress After OBJ joins the team.
Golden Age II – 2020 – Week 7 – OBJ is injured; Baker spreads his wings.
Dark Age II – 2021 – Week 3 – OBJ returns and Browns promptly drop into last place.
Golden Age III – 2021 – Week 9 – OBJ gifts the Browns with freedom from himself.

The Browns have a tough schedule ahead, but like Lieutenant Commander Worf used to say on the eve of a suicide mission:

It. Will. Be. Glorious!

Note: Rashard Higgins liked, then unliked OBJ’s attack-video on Baker. Perhaps he didn’t realize what it was at first. Maybe he thought that the theme of “OBJ is always open” was just giving accolades to his teammate. Then when he saw the savage attack on his QB in the comments, he got the hell outta there.

Note: Pete Smith of Sports Illustrated shares my view in: “Browns Offense is ‘Free’: What that Means and where they can go.” However, he writes: “The offense is not going to magically improve as a result of Beckham being out of the way…” I won’t dispute that, but it’s going to feel like magic.

Note: The wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst OBJ thralls is fucking hilarious. For a sample of such hysteria, listen to this podcast.

Note: To idiot teams thinking about signing Odell: keep in mind that OBJ was the most targeted receiver on the squad when he accused his QB of deliberately not throwing him the ball. Even if you threw him the ball on every passing down, he wouldn’t be satisfied. He would go on to demand the ball on rushing downs too! OBJ is football poison! Imbibe at your peril. “If I were you I’d take precautions:”

Remember when David Njoku asked to be traded last year? And remember when he later changed his mind and said that he was happy on the Browns? That’s how a normal person behaves; he just states his position. But Odell Beckham, Jr. is not a normal person. He is a passive/aggressive prima donna who will never state his position directly. And so the hit-piece on his quarterback, Baker Mayfield, was released by one of his minions instead of himself. And it was not a coincidence that it was released just before the NFL’s trade deadline.

Make no mistake; OBJ is demanding a trade, and has thrown his quarterback under the bus in the process of doing so.

Is OBJ justified? David Njoku certainly was. Look at how that turned out: Njoku got more playing time and has become the Browns premiere pass-catcher. Njoku knew better than the coaches/management/ownership that benched him.

But OBJ’s situation is different. Despite missing two games this season, he is the Browns’ most targeted receiver with 34 targets compared to second-place Austin Hooper with 28. OBJ is also almost always on the field, averaging 48 snaps per game.

The Browns ignored Njoku’s trade request, but OBJ’s demand is a different animal. Njoku doesn’t have a massive cult following like OBJ does, and Njoku didn’t disrupt the team. Meanwhile, OBJ already has LaBron James taking shots at the Browns, and demanding OBJ be set free. The only problem with that is that nobody seems to want him. With a decent offer, the Browns would have been crazy not to move OBJ, but none were forthcoming, apparently.

If I were Baker, I’d be pretty pissed-off. If forced to continue playing with OBJ, I would throw him nothing but “danger balls” over the middle where there was a safety lurking to smash OBJ after the catch.

In other words, this is a serious debacle, and the blame can only be laid at the feet of the boneheads in the front office who insist on employing OBJ. I have been campaigning against OBJ for a long time now, writing dozens and dozens of anti-OBJ blogs. And now I am fully justified in saying that I TOLD YOU SO to the millionth degree. I was right; the front office was wrong, so listen to me and do what I say! Get rid of this fucking poison before it spreads throughout the locker room! And in case you can’t figure it out, by “poison” I mean OBJ. Speaking of stupid…

D’Ernest Johnson Scored 100% of the Browns Touchdowns vs the Steelers

On the morning after the Browns’ victory over the Broncos, the whole world was raving about D’Ernest Johnson. Back on October 17th, before the Cardinals game, I tweeted that I was looking forward to seeing DJ get some snaps:

With Nick Chubb out today, and Kareem Hunt banged up, I'm looking forward to seeing D'Ernest Johnson get some touches. His stats are pretty impressive:

Career Yards per Carry:
5.3 – Chubb
5.0 – Johnson
4.6 – Hunt

Career Yards per Catch:
9.4 – Johnson
9.2 – Hunt
7.9 – Chubb

— Matt Trivisonno (@matttriv) October 17, 2021

He didn’t though. The Browns failed to utilize him. DJ had one carry and one catch, and the Browns got smashed by Kyler & Company.

After Kareem was knocked out, DJ finally got to play against the Broncos and stunned the world. Even I was amazed. After that masterful performance, just about everybody was expecting to see DJ fill in on the “spelling Nick Chubb” role formerly manned by Kareem Hunt. But the Browns had other ideas: D’Ernest Johnson, the man with the hot hand, was benched.

Versus the Steelers, DJ only got 4 carries. Would it have made a difference if he had gotten more? Yes, because Nick Chubb was still a little rusty coming back from his injury. He had an uncharacteristic 3.8 yards per carry, whereas DJ continued his torrid pace with 5.5. A few more carries, and I have no doubt that DJ would have turned the tables.

So, did bad coaching lose the game? Maybe; maybe not. We don’t know who really made the call to practically bench DJ. Back here, I wrote:

“Like Rashard Higgins and David Njoku, I think that Johnson has been unfairly persecuted, probably because analytics. I imagine Browns Chief of Slide Rules, Paul DePodesta including Johnson in the “don’t play” memo because he is “too slow.”

Did I call that, or what? Last year, fans had to complain long and hard about Rashard Higgins and David Njoku being benched. But it paid off; both players were allowed to play, and were heroes of the Browns playoff run. So, now we need to do it again. Fire up those keyboards and tell the Browns to pull their head out of their ass and FREE DJ!

The Browns have a big game with the Bengals coming up, and we don’t know how the team will perform with the Baker-Beckham conflict going nuclear. So, we can’t afford any kind of stupidity. The Browns need to put DJ in there, in the Kareem Hunt role, and give him the same dozen-or-so carries, and a few passing targets. Again, to reiterate for the learning-impaired: put the man with the hot hand in the fucking game!

Note to Stefanski: Cover Your Ass!

If OBJ is only here because of orders from above, you should write a CYA memo to whoever is making that call recommending that OBJ be released immediately or possibly put on injured-reserve for his shoulder. The memo should state that OBJ has turned on his quarterback, just like he did with Eli Manning, and you want to head off any dissension in the locker-room, just like the Giants did when they dumped him on the hapless Browns. Your season was already hanging by a thread before OBJ swung his scythe at it. Now it’s time to circle the wagons, eject the poison, and survive.

D'Ernest Johnson cuts it back for 6️⃣! #Browns

📺: #PITvsCLE on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/Yaf3smiU8L

— NFL (@NFL) October 31, 2021

PS: those of you criticizing the Browns defense after the 15-10 loss to the Steelers, keep in mind that giving up 15 points per game would make you the #1 defense in the league. As of now, Buffalo is the best with 15.6. So, the Browns got some badly needed progress on defense during that game.

Odell Beckham, Jr. fans must be disappointed to learn that their favorite player doesn’t play any better with Case Keenum than he does with Baker Mayfield. During the Browns’ victory over Denver on Thursday night, Keenum targeted OBJ six times, and OBJ was only able to reel in two balls for a terrible 33.3% catch rate.

Overall, Keenum completed 21 of 33 throws for a 63.6% completion rate, which isn’t great, but is decent considering how breezy it was in the wind-tunnel where the Browns insist on playing their games.

Odell was also playing injured, so conditions were not ideal, but OBJ came across as lackluster once again, dropping balls, falling down, drawing an illegal-formation penalty, and racking up a grand total of zero yards-after-catch (YAC) on his two catches. This is the second week in a row where the network announcers called him a “non factor.”

Prior to Thursday night, Baker had not missed a game. And OBJ’s previous QB, Eli Manning was equally as tough. So, we only had data for OBJ playing with two QBs in the NFL. But now, we have a full game of OBJ playing with a third QB, and the results swing the spotlight of blame back over to OBJ as to who is the culprit in the incredibly poor play of the Baker-Beckham duo.

If your receiving corps consisted of OBJ and five of his clones, and the Bengals called and said: we will trade you Ja’Marr Chase, but we want all six of your OBJ’s, how fast would you scream DEAL! into the phone?

People often debate who has the best QB in the division. Right now, if you went by QB rating it would be:

1) Joe Burrow
2) Baker Mayfield
3) Lamar Jackson
4) Ben Roethlisberger

But who has the best WR1 in the division? With OBJ averaging 14.1 yards-per-catch, our WR1 ranks at #37 in the 32-team league. Clearly, WR1 is a position of concern.

OBJ fanbois claim that we need to keep OBJ in there because he just might break one off at any moment. But, as I wrote a year ago, OBJ is simply not a big YAC guy. As I reported, Kareem Hunt was the Browns top YAC threat with an average of 5.94 YAC. Well, here is an update on that:

Browns’ Players YAC through Week 7 of the 2021 season:

As you can see in this spreadsheet, OBJ is not the go-to guy for YAC. In fact, Demetric Felton will give you 5x the yardage that OBJ would. Also, notice that the running-backs are all extremely good with YAC, and David Njoku is a menace with the ball in his hands. Do keep in mind that there is no YAC for your wide-outs when they make a toe-tapper on the sideline, or catch a ball in the end-zone. And Baker likes to make a lot of tight-window throws where the receiver is already in the process of being tackled! And finally, Anthony Schwartz can be knocked over with a feather.

Go to the 5:58 mark of this video to see why Demetric Felton’s YAC number is so high.

After the Chargers game, Baker Mayfield and Myles Garrett were critical of the officiating, and justifiably so. However, it’s not like the refs are going to look in the mirror and say: “Golly, gee whiz, I really have to try harder because the players are complaining.” No. They are more likely to say: “Just wait until I get my hands on those fucking Browns again! I will officiate those assholes right into the ground! I don’t care how big and powerful Myles Garrett is! I will crush him like a bug! No sacks for you!”

Right? Nothing good can come from butting heads with the officials. Remember when Odell Beckham, Jr. clashed with the NFL over uniform issues? What happened next? It seemed like Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey was given carte blanche to interfere with OBJ. And it wasn’t just Humphrey. Remember when Bengals CB William Jackson blatantly held OBJ’s jersey; right in front of an official; who didn’t throw a flag? Watch:

Odell Beckham a jersey-grab away from beating William Jackson for a second time down the left sideline. pic.twitter.com/Jt5clAYFeq

— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) September 18, 2020

Did you see the ref at the end of the video looking right at OBJ?

Truth be told, OBJ’s battle with the league resulted in a substantial hit to his stats, and to Baker’s stats also. But after I excoriated OBJ back here, he stopped tangling with the league, and was eventually treated more fairly by the refs.

But last week, while playing the Cardinals, the refs unveiled a brand-new penalty just for the Browns: touching the passer:

pic.twitter.com/IBkt3Mci5n

— sports (@ilikesportsvids) October 17, 2021

Yes, the officiating is atrocious and needs to be fixed. But bringing the wrath of incompetent refs down on your head is not the way to do it. Players should think of bad officiating as akin to bad weather. It’s just something you have to endure because there is nothing you can do about it.

Stefanski Surrenders to Cardinals

I was expecting D’Ernest Johnson to get more action on Sunday, what with Nick Chubb out and Kareem Hunt banged up, but Johnson only got two touches. The league’s #1 rushing team inexplicably decided to abandon the running game. On average, the Browns had been running the ball 32 times per game. But against the Cardinals, they only ran 16 times.

Okay, you would expect the running game to be diminished with Chubb out and both tackle positions compromised. But couldn’t Hunt & Johnson run behind Bitonio, Tretter, and Teller? I hear those guys are pretty good at run-blocking. Who was it that said that the best play you can call is running it straight up the middle?

After the game, Baker said that the Cardinals were putting a lot of big bodies up front, and the Browns tried to shake them out of that by going with an empty backfield and more receivers. But is that all it takes for the Browns to abandon their scheme? The Cardinals rushing defense was ranked at #29 in the league coming into the game, and somehow they were able to easily shut down the Browns? How does that happen? In any case, believe it or not, the Browns are still the #1 rushing team averaging 168.5 yards per game.

Now that the two-headed monster has been beheaded, the Browns have no choice but to let Johnson take a few hand offs. Like Rashard Higgins and David Njoku, I think that Johnson has been unfairly persecuted, probably because analytics. I imagine Browns Chief of Slide Rules, Paul DePodesta including Johnson in the “don’t play” memo because he is “too slow.”

Johnson doesn’t have a combine time, but he ran a 4.81s forty at his pro day. That makes him tied for last place (among non-linemen) with Andy Janovich and Baker Mayfield. See my speed page. And yet, somehow, Johnson is pretty good at running the ball. For example, returning kick-offs for the Browns last year, he ranked at #8 in the league with 24.8 yards per return. And that is substantially better than what speedsters Anthony Schwartz (23.6) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (21.1) have done.

Could it be that straight-ahead speed is only a minor factor when it comes to running the ball?

And Johnson is a smart player. In fact, Baker’s famous Hail-Mary pass against the Cardinals wouldn’t have happened without him. Keep reading:

Baker’s Hail Mary

Normally, we see the Hail Mary pass at the end of the game during “garbage time” where it is just a matter of luck. But Baker Mayfield’s Hail Mary versus the Cardinals was executed with quite a lot of skill.

First, Baker was aware of how far he could throw the ball, and like getting into field-goal range, he knew how close he needed to get. So, after the Cardinals kicked-off, Baker threw a series of short passes to get to the 43-yard line. Johnson caught one of those passes.

Second, when Baker dropped back to throw the bomb, Johnson stayed in to provide pass-pro, and prevented Baker from being sacked.

Third, Baker threw a perfectly accurate pass.

Fourth, Donovan Peoples-Jones made a superb catch. DPJ seemed to be the target with Higgins and Njoku positioned behind him to snag a potentially tipped ball.

So, well done all around, and Baker’s stats for the day don’t need an asterisk. Which is important because…

Baker Did Better than it Feels

Pop quiz! Who threw for the most yards, and highest completion-rate? Baker or Kyler? It sure feels like Kyler, right? But Baker won on both counts. He threw for 234 yards to Kyler’s 229, and completed 67.9% to Kyler’s 66.6%.

Last week, I predicted that Baker would play better going forward because he had been cured of his OBJ-itis. And despite trying to pilot a smashed-up offense without Nick Chubb, Jedrick Wills, Jack Conklin, Jarvis Landry, and his own shoulder injury, Baker did pretty well. He also seems to have worked a bit more smoothly with OBJ. The fourth-down pass in the fourth quarter that OBJ couldn’t grab could be classified as a case of Baker forcing the ball to OBJ because the DB was close enough to get a hand in. But overall, and with all the injury adversity, and facing an undefeated foe, I think Baker did pretty well. So, I’m still liking my prediction.

Baker did blow the game with three turnovers and five self-inflicted, hero-ball sacks, but his throwing was pretty good.

Notes

Note: According to Next Gen Stats, Baker’s Hail Mary traveled 66.4 yards in the air, which is the longest since Next Gen started counting in 2016. It beat the old record by 2 yards.

Note to Stefanski: that 4th down play where Baker runs backwards and gets sacked? Yeah, stop calling that. It’s a bad play.

Note: The defense improved from two blown-coverage TDs last week to one this week. Progress.

Note to Joe Woods: you have seven new starters in your defense this year. Could your scheme be too complicated for so many new players? Maybe simplify things a bit until they have time to gel?

Note: according to PFF: “Mayfield took five sacks in the game, but none were credited against the offensive line.” Classic hero-ball. This is a big area where Baker can make advances: not losing your mind when you fall behind.

Forget the loss to the Chargers because Baker’s back, baby!

Pop quiz: who had more snaps on Sunday? Odell Beckham or David Njoku? Odell has been called a “non-factor” in the game, and Njoku was all over the place making big plays, so you can be forgiven if you guessed that Njoku had more snaps; but he didn’t. OBJ had 58 snaps while Njoku only had 46.

Why is that significant? Because OBJ was double-covered the whole game, and Baker refused to throw the low-odds passes to the world-famous WR. So, in the second quarter, when OBJ lured away two Chargers DBs, and Rashard Higgins was left wide open, Baker just tossed the easy TD to Higgy.

Now, that might seem like common sense, but it has been something Baker has struggled with. And the whole world was talking about it. The Chargers game was the third game in a row where the network broadcast announcers discussed the mysterious lack of chemistry between the two Browns superstars.

Last week, the criticism of Baker hit a crescendo. So much so that Emily Mayfield took to Instagram to defend Baker. My theory is that this elevated level of pressure forced Baker to make the big breakthrough.

The Browns offense was a thing of beauty on Sunday, and the team now ranks at #6 for points scored per game at 28.4. I expect that number to go up – a lot – in the coming weeks.

So, what was Baker’s big breakthrough? Not being a mind reader, I don’t know. But my guess is that Baker finally realized that OBJ’s fame cannot confer preferential treatment on the football field. That if OBJ is double-covered, and only gets open three times a game, he should only get the ball exactly three times per game.

Which seems obvious, but what if Baker has been thinking: “I’ll throw to whoever I want; double coverage be damned. And I will force this Baker-Bekham duo to excel.” It sounds like something he might do, no? After all, Baker can, in fact, throw laser beams into the smallest openings.

Whatever the blockage, I don’t blame Baker. It was a difficult thing to master. While Eli Manning had no trouble throwing balls to OBJ, he got OBJ as a young pup, fresh out of college. By contrast, Baker got OBJ as a mega-star, while Baker himself was the pup in his sophomore year with the Browns.

And Baker had no help from his coaches. After all, dealing with a megastar like OBJ is a rare experience simply because OBJ is a rare individual. Sure, the stereotypical prima-donna WR is nothing new, but OBJ’s massive social-media following certainly is. I think that all those eyeballs weighed on Baker, and his coaches just didn’t know what to do about it. And it is likely that nobody could have helped Baker. Current and former QBs, receivers, college coaches, NFL coaches, sports psychologists, etc. have simply never encountered such a thing.

But Baker is a grizzled veteran now, and with this final high-hurdle leapt, he is poised to ascend to his ceiling, however high that may be. Actually, he is already ascending, as we witnessed on Sunday.

I’m sure that OBJ doesn’t like being double-teamed, but remember when Myles Garrett was complaining about being chipped before the Bears game? What happened next? 4.5 sacks, right? Myles now leads the league in sacks, and the same effect can apply to OBJ.

If double-covering OBJ allows David Njoku to run free, exactly how long are teams going to be able to stay focused on OBJ? Think of Njoku as OBJ’s Clowney. The Cardinals defensive coordinator is probably having nightmares about this right now.

So, OBJ was not a non-factor on Sunday. He helped his teammates by drawing coverage away from them, created some nice targets for Baker, and threw blocks downfield to help his teammates extend those plays. So, don’t be fooled. Don’t miss the gearshift into overdrive that happened on Sunday. (Actually, the overdrive gear lowers the RPMs of your engine in order to save fuel, but you get the idea.)

Last week, in light of Baker’s poor play, I recommended:

“What could politically be done is for the team to return to Stefanski’s original solution to this problem that he deployed when he took over in 2020: a strict Shanahan-Kubiak offense where Baker is the game manager handing the ball off to Chubb & Hunt, and throwing short passes to his tight-ends, as OBJ runs down the field as a decoy.”

And that is exactly what they did. In fact, Baker didn’t throw a long ball until the 3rd quarter; the one that Schwartz miss-played down the sideline.

I also wrote last week:

“One thing we KNOW about Baker is that he plays extremely well when Higgins, Landry, and Njoku are his primary targets. That is the only solution that we know of…”

And again, that’s what the Browns did. Landry didn’t play, but is was just like the glory days of 2018 with Hig & Njoku getting all those targets – and touchdowns! Switching focus from Hooper back to Njoku was a massive home run.

So, I recommend more of the same for the Cardinals game simply because Stefanski, Baker, Chub, Hunt, Njoku, and Hig are so damn good at it. As for the defense, I don’t know that they need to do much more than get healed-up, and work on those blown coverages.

I’m sure that the gloom is so thick up in Cleveland that you can cut it with a knife. But Browns fans should look beyond the loss to the Chargers and rejoice in the knowledge that they now possess an unstoppable scoring machine that can put up 40 points a game. With even a modest defense, the Browns will be unbeatable. Trust me; it’s going to be good; so good that the Browns might not even need to keep a punter on the roster. 🙂

Remember: Baker is cured, and you heard it here first.

During the network broadcasts of the last two Browns games, the announcers discussed the Baker-Beckham problem, and put stats about it up on the screen. In other words, everybody is talking about it now, not just a handful of us “cranks.” And the Browns front office is starting to look like the Village Idiot of the NFL for deploying two blatantly incompatible players.

Somebody in the Browns franchise has made the decision to continue employing Odell Beckham, Jr. even though ANALYTICALLY it is the very dumbest decision possible. Whether it is Coach Stefanski, GM Andrew Barry, analytics nerd Paul DePodesta, or the Haslams, this person(s) has decided to blow up the team, and appears resolute in doing so.

We know Baker is Superman, and OBJ is his kryptonite. Nobody knows why Baker falls to pieces when OBJ is on the field, but that is exactly what happens. Everybody has a pet theory now, but rest assured, NOBODY knows with certainty what the actual problem is. None of us are mind readers. We don’t KNOW what is happening inside Baker’s head. Hell, Baker himself probably doesn’t know.

That’s why this problem has gone unsolved for years.

However, we know it can be solved because we witnessed the solution after an Act of God removed OBJ from the equation last year.

But the Village Idiot doesn’t like that solution; separating Baker from the kryptonite? Good God, no! We couldn’t possibly do that! Baker must be forced to eat the kryptonite until he likes it!

Trust me; this is an emergency! The Village Idiot is poised to piss away our Super Bowl!

To their credit, Baker & OBJ worked hard over the summer trying to build their chemistry.

But they failed.

The Browns coaching staff also worked hard on fixing their dysfunctional duo.

But they failed.

Make no mistake: the team has lost its elite QB and nobody knows how to bring him back. Could heads roll over this? Yes, because this is exactly what a coaching staff is supposed to be able to do: get the most out of its players. And here we have two enormously gifted athletes playing like dogshit, and nobody has a fucking clue how to fix them.

Now, this may be a rare problem that only a very small number of coaches have experience with. Or maybe this is the first time it has ever happened and nobody knows what to do about it. But conducting business as usual is likely to get somebody fired, so something must be done.

Personally, I would love to see how a Keenum-Beckham duo would do as an experiment. What if OBJ were to catch 8 of 10 passes from Case Keenum? That would be an important data-point, no? It would isolate the problem in Baker. More precisely: in Baker’s head, because we know he can physically play at an elite level.

The Browns Need a New Offensive Scheme

Having Keenum take a few reps with OBJ is unlikely to happen because benching Baker, even briefly, would be crazy controversial. But what could politically be done is for the team to return to Stefanski’s original solution to this problem that he deployed when he took over in 2020: a strict Shanahan-Kubiak offense where Baker is the game manager handing the ball off to Chubb & Hunt, and throwing short passes to his tight-ends, as OBJ runs down the field as a decoy.

It was good enough for a 4-2 record to start the 2020 season before the dynamic was changed by OBJ’s injury. So, my advice to Stefanski, if he continues to be saddled with playing Baker & OBJ, is to roll back the passing game, amp up the ground game, and let a strong defense take you to an 11-6 record. And keep your fingers crossed that that will be good enough for a playoff berth.

It’s Time for a Baker-Beckham No-Fault Divorce

It’s sad watching Baker regress like this, and it will likely cost him millions of dollars. I have tried my best to prevent this outcome, but after writing passionately on this topic for a couple of years now, there is really nothing else I can do.

As for OBJ, he really should ask for a trade. It’s blatantly clear now that he is not going to get what he wants by playing with Baker.

Again, they tried, they failed, and now it is time to give up. It’s time to stop banging your heads against the fucking wall. Just “putting your best players on the field” is not working. Baker & OBJ are not suddenly just going to “click.” We can’t even identify the problem, let alone address it.

OBJ had no trouble catching balls from Eli Manning. Baker has no trouble throwing balls to Landry, Higgins, and Njoku. A divorce will free each player to get back to their elite level of play.

OBJ fanbois act as if trading OBJ will yield nothing in return, but that is not the case. OBJ looks fantastic, and would return substantial value. Maybe we could get a two-legged left-tackle for him…

The Rashard Higgins Mystery

Speaking of Higgins…don’t you think it was odd that Baker hit Hig so easily against the Vikings, but couldn’t hit OBJ to save his life? Even when OBJ was wide open? Normally, Hig isn’t allowed on the field until all the other receivers have sustained injuries, and we rarely see him at the same time as OBJ. So, here is another theory:

Nobody expects Higgins to even play, let along catch a pass. So, with zero expectations, there is zero pressure on Baker to throw to him, and his body relaxes, and he throws a nice, smooth pass. The exact opposite happens when he throws to OBJ where there are MASSIVE expectations. His body tenses up, and he throws a bad pass.

Letting Higgins play, and get some targets, is one thing the coaching staff got right on Sunday. So, good for them. One thing we KNOW about Baker is that he plays extremely well when Higgins, Landry, and Njoku are his primary targets. That is the only solution that we know of, yet the Village Idiot rejects it.

The team has been trying to force the big-dollar investments in OBJ & Austin Hooper to work, but it is long past time they give up on those sunk costs and get back to what we KNOW works.

Mary Kay Cabot was TOTALLY Wrong

Here’s what she wrote back in February:

“If he’s back, I think Beckham and Mayfield will flourish from the start, and that he [Beckham] will return to a Pro Bowl-caliber level.”

And Cabot’s partner in crime at Cleveland.com, Ellis Williams, wrote this:

“Assuming Mayfield picks up where he left off, I’m forecasting Beckham opening the 2021 season in electric fashion.”

Well, Baker did pick up where he left off, right up until he hit the brick wall when OBJ returned.

But guess what? After assuring us dozens of times over the summer that Baker & OBJ would get along just swimmingly, Mary Kay Cabot finally broke down and admitted that there is a problem. And she even has her own theory! Here is what she said on the “Orange and Brown Talk” podcast Monday:

“I think sometimes Baker gets almost a little too hyped up. He gets a little too much juice; a little too much adrenaline. And he can’t bring himself down. He can’t control himself.”

As I said above, none of us are mind-readers, so Cabot could be right. However, Baker has been thick as thieves with OBJ for a couple of years now. How could his adrenal glands still be going berserk when he is throwing a ball to OBJ? Also, we need solutions, not just theories. And we also need to convince the Browns to run experiments on our theories. Because the Browns clearly have no intention of doing anything at all. Like Stefanski said, “That’s not really a concern of mine or ours.” They are just going to keep sending Baker & Odell out there until they stop sucking. Not exactly a policy that is “Coach of the Year” material…but perhaps Stefanski is trying to tell us that the decision is not in his hands, but being handed down from above.

Browns Notes

Note: Yes, I know Baker’s left arm might be bothering him, but last year, he played at an elite level with a cracked rib. If his shoulder were the problem, he wouldn’t have been able to throw those laser beams to Hig.

Note: Baker got hit with not only the return of OBJ, but the loss of Landry, in the same game. And the Browns deployed a one-legged man at left tackle. That’s a lot to deal with, and it is amazing that Baker won the game, and did so without fumbling or throwing an interception.

Note: It wasn’t just an “off day.” It’s an off half-the-season so far. Baker has hit rock bottom and drilled deeper! During the last two weeks, Baker has managed to rank at #33 in the 32-team league with an abysmal completion rate of 53.1%. Go here and make sure the split is set to “Last 2 Weeks” to capture the Bears & Vikings games.

Note: Say goodbye to “Good Baker” because “Bad Baker” is back to stay. The blog I wrote on this eight months ago has held up well: Good Baker/Bad Baker Mystery Solved.

Note: was CBS announcer Kevin Harlan’s sing-song delivery nauseating or what? Hate that.

Note: Myles Garrett’s shirtless press conference before the Bears game lit a fire under the Browns defense. I think you could also include DC Joe Woods in that fire. Did Myles convince the DC to get more aggressive? I think so.

Note: I didn’t know it, but PFF grades QB-WR duos. John Kosko, Lead Analyst of PFF was on the Locked On Browns Podcast “Under the Lens 4” episode this week. At the 16:50 mark of the show, Kosko says that Baker has a grade of 90.7 when OBJ is not on the field. And when OBJ is on the field, Baker’s grade plunges to a 68.7. He thinks it is a Baker issue and not OBJ’s fault, and Baker has a mental block. Kosko says that OBJ’s route running vs the Vikings was awesome, so the Browns could easily get some nice trade offers for OBJ. And that is the only way to solve the problem because it is far more difficult to replace a franchise QB than it is a receiver. [Emphasis mine.]

Note: What if Dee Haslam is smitten by both Baker & OBJ and insists on having them both on her team? Then we all would be just wasting our breath, now wouldn’t we?

After Week 2, Baker Mayfield was the most-accurate QB in the NFL. Then Odell Beckham, Jr. returned to the lineup for Week 3 and Baker sunk to #5. Baker completed 75% of his passes against the Chiefs, and 90% against the Texans, but only 61% versus the Bears, with OBJ on the field.

Everybody knows that Baker has historically played poorly with OBJ present. The two superstars have never been able to get on the same page. When Baker’s play improved so dramatically in 2020 after OBJ was injured, many of us assumed that Baker could not be the culprit of the dysfunctional duo because he was so blatantly talented.

And indeed, during the off-season, the Browns drew up a set of routes for OBJ and tasked him with running them with technical precision. He and Baker practiced those routes and seem to have implemented them in the Bears game. In this video, you can see OBJ running a timing route to perfection, and the ball from Baker arriving with laser-like precision. So, well done all around: Baker, Odell, and Coach O’Shea. But…

OBJ had 5 catches on 9 targets for 55.6% versus the Bears. The rest of the team had 14 catches on 22 targets which is 63.6%.

Okay, it’s only one game, and a small amount of data, but still…shouldn’t OBJ have been higher than the average? Especially with all the extra work he did with Baker?

Not only that, but the 63.6% rate the rest of the team had wasn’t so great either. In other words, Baker had an off day, and while it might be a coincidence that his play regressed on the very same day OBJ returned, what if it isn’t? What if the Baker-Bekham duo is still broken somehow?

Perhaps Baker forced a couple of balls to OBJ that he should not have? But if he did, why would he do that? Yes, OBJ could have pestered him in the huddle for more targets. But it could also be that Baker, alone, feels the massive weight of OBJ’s stardom, and of his own accord, tries to get a few more balls to OBJ.

That would be a problem. That alone would constitute a regression from the superb play Baker achieved in the second half of last year. Analysts have been assuring us that it is impossible for Baker to regress because he has full command of the team now, but they may be wrong.

The fact is that commanding a squad of regular players is one thing, and Baker has indeed mastered that. But, even a fully cooperative OBJ still comes with a social-media following massive enough to bend anybody’s mind. In other words, leading a team that includes OBJ is a completely different skill than leading a regular team.

While it might seem to be too early to raise a red flag, there is no such thing as “too early” when it comes to a possible regression of your franchise QB. So, here are two things that need to be done:

#1 – The coaches need to find out if OBJ is pestering Baker for more targets. And if he is, he needs to be made to stop.

#2 – Baker must be examined to see if he is putting undo pressure upon himself. I imagine a sports psychologist might be useful here.

I would also bring in Eli Manning as a consultant to learn from his experience of playing with OBJ.

NFL players have always played in front of huge audiences. However, a social-media audience is inherently different because they can interact more with players.

If the Browns can’t get a handle on this problem, then further options would be to bench OBJ until a fix is found, trade OBJ, trade Baker, or maybe limit the number of OBJ’s targets. So, if Baker were only permitted to throw 5 balls to OBJ, he would have to be more judicious with his decisions to make sure all 5 counted. In fact, I like this idea so much that the Browns should implement it on Sunday against the Vikings while also working on the two points above.

With his contract negotiations coming up, Baker has incentive to get to the bottom of this problem and get it fixed. He should look at it as a challenge; as an opportunity to acquire an important leadership skill.

Let’s face it: the Browns should have knocked quite a lot more stuffing out of the Chicago Teddy Bears. The fact that Baker only threw 1 touchdown pass is just plain wrong. Four field goals? Get the fuck outta here with that bullshit. Seriously, is that how a Super Bowl team plays? What if Kareem Hunt couldn’t play? What would the score have been? A 10-6 squeaker? Trust me; something has gone wrong.

Being a passive/aggressive drama queen, we can’t expect OBJ to explicitly state his demands to return to the field. However, he might be funneling his demands through reporter Mary Kay Cabot, his biggest fanboi. Cabot has been emphatic that OBJ will only return “on his terms” and has been clear on what OBJ wants:

OBJ wants creative freedom. He does not want to be restricted by the routes designed for him by receiver’s coach Chad O’Shea. OBJ needs creative freedom because he is often double-teamed, and must be free to dance around and shake his coverage.

In other words, OBJ wants business as usual, just like before when he and Baker were the very worst QB/WR duo in the league.

The Browns coaches want none of that. After all, if OBJ is permitted to take the offense back to the Great Regression of 2019, some coaching heads might roll. Baker will suffer too. As of Week 2 in 2021, Baker is the most-accurate QB in the league, and looking to cash in with a huge contract. Being saddled with a “creative” OBJ will likely cost Baker millions.

Cabot also scoffs at Baker & OBJ’s off-season efforts to improve their chemistry, and repeats what is likely another OBJ demand: OBJ needs all the balls all the time to rack up the necessary in-game reps to create real chemistry.

So, in OBJ’s ridiculous system, Baker would just stand there, eyes locked onto his majesty, waiting for that magical moment when OBJ shakes his coverage, and then throw him the ball. In other words, a 100% predictable offense in a league where deception is the only edge.

If the Browns coaches cave to this nonsense, then they deserve what they will get.

In 2020, OBJ was paid $228,261 per catch, yet he only caught 53.5% of his targets, ranking him at #191 in the league. So, we already know that OBJ’s system is dumb, but OBJ does not appear to have any interest whatsoever in going back to being the master technical route runner that he was with the Giants. Even though, if he did that, and seeing as how laser-beam accurate Baker is, OBJ could put up incredible numbers.

During the Browns-vs-Texans game on Sunday, one of the NFL announcers said that Texans receiver Brandin Cooks was known as the “quarterback’s best friend” because of his ability to create instant chemistry. Here’s what Cooks said back in May:

“For me, it doesn’t matter who is throwing me the ball. I’m going to get on the same page and figure out how you like things to be done, and we are going to go out there and ball. I’ve shown that throughout my career.”

And indeed he has. If you look at his stats, Cooks has had 1,000-yard years with all four teams he has played for.

Cooks is a solid, level-headed professional football player. He gets the job done. Why can’t OBJ do that? Because OBJ is not satisfied with being a “mere cog” in a winning system. OBJ want to be THE SHOW. He wants everything to revolve around himself. He probably secretly thinks of QBs as “ball-throwing bitches.”

Ultimately, what OBJ wants can’t be achieved. OBJ wants football to be an individual sport like bowling where he can roll a perfect 300 game every time. It’s a fool’s errand, but who is going to talk him out of it? Doesn’t he have any friends who can do an intervention? All Odell has to do is adopt “The Cooks Attitude” and it’s raining TDs. But he won’t. The Browns should stop trying to knock sense into this knucklehead and move the fuck on already.

Stefanski, Van Pelt, and O’Shea need to hold fast to the training they have given OBJ, even if OBJ holds out until Week 17 as he has threatened to do. They should only back down on a direct order from management or ownership. That way, they will have a paper trail absolving them of the inevitable regression of their franchise QB.

Note: Just like last year, everybody is up in arms over the defense. However, the Browns are above average in total yards allowed, ranking at #14. And that is only two rungs below the Rams who were the #1 defense last year. Not bad.

Note: If you watch the Browns-vs-Texans game-recap, it’s pretty fantastic. Watching Chubb, Hunt, and Felton running the ball is like mainlining heroin.

Browns HC Kevin Stefanski announced on Wednesday that Odell Beckham, Jr. would not be playing against the Texans on Sunday. The coach didn’t want any distractions during his preparations this week, and preemptively booted OBJ out the door.

Two days ago, I wrote:

“Coach Stefanski seems to be indulging OBJ now, but it will be interesting to see how he handles the situation once he realizes what is actually happening.”

And it is “interesting” indeed. The coach mentioned that he had included OBJ in his game-plan for Kansas City, and didn’t seem to like the fact that OBJ refused to play. This week, he wants OBJ out of the picture so that he can develop his plan for the Texans without any drama.

OBJ has effectively been benched.

Note to OBJ fanbois: As this war of words heats up, whose side will you pick? Your majesty, who won’t play, or Stefanski and the Browns? I’m sure this is very stressful for you, but don’t say that I didn’t warn you!

Note to Texans: Don’t even think about celebrating. You will be smashed either way. The Browns don’t need OBJ, at all. Now, get back to putting your affairs in order.

Odell Beckham, Jr. declined battle on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. While his teammates valiantly fought to avenge last year’s playoff loss, OBJ said: “Nah. I’m good here on the sidelines with the water-boys.”

By all accounts, OBJ is more than ready to play. So, I think he is on strike, and it’s exactly the kind of passive/aggressive strike you would expect from a hyper-narcissist diva like OBJ. He doesn’t like being tagged with these labels, but if the shoe fits…

Coach Stefanski seems to be indulging OBJ now, but it will be interesting to see how he handles the situation once he realizes what is actually happening.

I predicted this would happen. Back on July 27, 2021, I wrote:

“You heard it here first: war is brewing between the Browns and OBJ.”

When will OBJ come back? Here’s how he answered that question:

“So, whenever that is, week 1, week 17, I don’t know. Whenever we’re ready we’ll be ready.”

Why is he on strike? Because his coaches want him to run precise routes, and OBJ wants to run creative routes. The problem is that Baker can’t find OBJ on random routes, and the duo has put up terrible stats. So, the idea is to have OBJ run routes by the book, like all the other receivers, and keep Baker flying high.

At first, OBJ seemed to be with the program. But now it appears that being a diva is more important to him than being an effective receiver. Read “The OBJ Flying Circus Offense” to see why OBJ’s creative route running is such a disaster.

OBJ can end this strike whenever he wants, but he couldn’t call it a victory because he has not presented a formal list of demands. Maybe he would take the field, but just move onto the the next passive/aggressive ploy. Perhaps he won’t run his new routes at all. Or maybe he would do a piss-poor job on them.

Personally, I would love to see him hold out for the rest of the year. The Browns were #1 in total offense for Week 1 (see below), so it’s not like they need him or anything. And they have a new guy to break in. Some are calling Anthony Schwartz’s performance a breakout. I know I was surprised by how well he did. PFF gave Schwartz a 76.4 grade, which is slightly higher than OBJ’s grade from last year.

Make no mistake, the Browns are now in a power-struggle with OBJ. He is healthy, the choice to play or not is his, and he decided not to play in one of the biggest games of the year. If I were Stefanski, I would have been shopping him around from the sideline, during the game. And since OBJ is rarely in one piece, the Browns should hurry up and trade him before he gets hurt again.

Here are two quotes from Coach Stefanski about OBJ:

On Friday: “He was 50-50, questionable and just didn’t feel like he could go.”

On Sunday: “He worked out before the game and didn’t feel like he could go a significant amount, so we felt like it was the right thing to do to keep him inactive.”

Note: Keep in mind that Stefanski gave the decision to OBJ, and that means that the Browns’ medical staff have cleared him.

Note: the Browns had 457 yards of total offense; more than anybody except the Raiders who had 491. However, I counted 110 yards for the Raiders in overtime, so in regulation time the Browns were still the most potent offense in the league. Also, if you look down the list, you will see the Chiefs way down at #14. They must be pretty upset about that since they were #1 last year. A lot of people are complaining about the Browns defense, but they beat the Chiefs down 13 ranks, which is pretty fantastic.

In the first half of the Week-1, Browns-vs-Chiefs game, the Browns gave the Chiefs a sound drubbing. But just before the 2nd quarter ended, Browns head coach
Kevin Stefanski called his “rugby play” where the players lateral the ball backward to each other to keep the play going. It looks more like rugby than football, and it’s not a serious play. Rather, it’s something fun to do on the last play of a game.

However, by calling this play just before halftime, Stefanski was rubbing it in, and I think that pissed off the Chiefs who then came out roaring in the 3rd quarter. Stefanski was being cavalier, and acting as if he had the game won. In other words, the rugby play is blackboard material; the kind of thing that motivates your opponent.

As much as I enjoy watching the rugby play, it might be a good idea to retire it. Even at the end of a game, your opponent just might hold onto the hard feelings for the next time around.

Having said that, the Browns did an amazing job of weathering the emotional storm after the Chiefs came charging back out of the locker-room to start the third quarter. Not only can the Browns handle the Chiefs, but they can handle them when they are fired up. Very impressive.

Note: I was bullish on the Browns’ chances in my last post. However, if you bet on the Browns, you were a winner because they covered the spread.

Note: The Browns are a great team and are going to win a lot of games this year. Just think: they almost beat the Chiefs without having their best receiver involved. And of course, I am talking about Rashard Higgins, who did quite well against the Chiefs last season.

It seems like the majority of Browns analysts are picking their team to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. And they are already explaining away the loss as not important in a long, 17-game season. These people need to snap out of it already, because the truth is that the Chiefs should be fearing the Browns – a lot.

The #1 Iron Law of NFL Football is that games are won in the trenches. We saw this law in action during the Super Bowl where the Chiefs were blown out due to their depleted offensive line.

The #2 Iron Law of NFL Football is that you can’t win without a good quarterback. But, as we also saw in the Super Bowl, even if you have Patrick Mahomes that does not nullify Iron Law #1.

So, the Browns-vs-Chiefs game here in Week 1 of the 2021 season will be decided by the Browns d-line vs the Chiefs o-line. Now, imagine if you were a Chiefs fan, and you just spent the last seven months obsessing over the rebuild of your o-line. Then in Week 1, Myles Garret comes to town? And he brings Jadeveon Clowney with him? Both freshly removed from their bubble wrap? Wouldn’t you be terrified? Talk about a trial by fire…

By all accounts, the Chiefs have done a good job with their rebuild, and the Browns are also fielding a revamped d-line. So, both lines will need a few games to gel to get up to speed. But the job of an o-line is much more complicated and intricate than that of a d-line. Not only that, but the Chiefs will be fielding three rookie linemen. I predict tough sledding for them on Sunday.

Last year, the Chiefs put up 438 yards against the mediocre Browns defense, but I don’t think they will come close to that this time. Last year, Browns DC Joe Woods staffed his defense with guys acquired via pickup truck from the Home Depot parking lot: “Necesito once! Necesito once!” And Andrew Sendejo jumps in. This year, Woods actually has a whole pile of elite players to work with. Imagine what he will do, KC. Just imagine.

Last year, the Steelers learned the hard way that there is a new sheriff in town in the AFC North. This year, the Chiefs will meet the new sheriff of the entire AFC: your Cleveland Browns.

OBJ fanbois remind me of the Black Knight character in Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

The last limb of the metaphorical OBJ Knight was cut off by Browns receivers coach, Chad O’Shea, two months ago when he took OBJ to the woodshed. See what I wrote back on May 14, 2021.

One such limbless OBJ Knight is Brett Kollmann who obviously didn’t get the O’Shea memo. In a video titled: “The Odell Beckham Jr. Narrative Makes No Sense” Kollmann rolls out a bunch of lame excuses for OBJ’s poor performance in Cleveland. Even though OBJ’s route-running has already been retooled from the ground up, I feel a duty to attempt to deprogram these thralls out of their cult of personality so that they may move on to more productive lives.

The first argument Kollmann defends OBJ with is that “correlation does not equal causation.” And just because Baker’s stats suffer when Beckham is on the field doesn’t prove that it’s OBJ’s fault. But sometimes a correlation does reveal a causation. In fact, correlations should be looked at as clues that might lead you to a valuable causation. And in this case, there is plenty of causation. That’s why the Browns’ expert coaches have ruled against OBJ. He has been weighed, measured, and found wanting.

Kollmann’s second argument is this:

“Believe it or not, this offense was not designed around getting volume opportunities to Odell Beckham. It was designed around using the threat of Odell to give wide-open opportunities to basically every other skill-position player on the roster.”

But why was that done? Answer: Stefanski was aware of the 2019 shit-show and had to come up with a way to work around the hideous Baker-Beckham duo. Using OBJ as a decoy instead of a receiver was one of the solutions deployed. Running a Kubiak-Shanahan system, and making Baker a game-manager QB, was another.

Kollmann’s third argument is that Baker did better without Beckham on the field in the second half of the season because the whole team had gotten better as the season went on. But we know that isn’t the case. In reality, it only took 12 minutes and 24 seconds after OBJ got injured for Baker to light the Bengals’ fur on fire. (See my time-line here.) According to NFL NextGen Stats, the odds against Mayfield completing 22 straight passes were 19,062 to 1.

It was no accident. Baker transformed almost instantaneously after he was free of the OBJ albatross.

Kollmann claims that OBJ could not possibly be the problem because:

“Football, the most complicated team sport in the world does not work that way. It never has been, and it never, ever will be that simple…”

True, football is indeed complicated, and it is rare when a single player, no matter how talented, can change the fate of a team. However, there is a reason why QBs get paid so much more money than other players: they have an outsized impact on the team. Receivers are the second-highest paid players because the QB needs talent to throw to.

But OBJ is no ordinary receiver. He is a megastar, far more popular than Baker off the field. And he has used his star-power to deploy a reality-distortion field around the Browns offense. See what I wrote here. So, the Browns are a special case when it comes down to a single player dramatically discombobulating the offense.

Kollmann puts his hopes in the fact that Baker and his receivers worked on their chemistry over the summer at Camp Mayfield in Texas:

“The only thing – and I mean literally THE ONLY THING – holding the Browns’ offense back in the first half of last year was themselves. They had all the talent in the world, but they just didn’t have the chemistry to make that talent work efficiently.”

This is a common argument from OBJ fanbois. The problem is that nobody actually knows how to create chemistry, and I’m pretty sure that hanging out together off the field isn’t going to do it. The only thing that seems to work is a massive number of practice reps, which OBJ could not do this off-season because he was still rehabbing his knee. So, OBJ fanbois need to brace for more suck on the chemistry front this year.

Of course, if you really wanted chemistry, Landry, Higgins and Njoku would be starters. And Donovan Peoples-Jones would be your #3 WR. DPJ has shown signs of developing chemistry with Baker; and he is doing it with far fewer reps than OBJ has done with Baker. In fact, DPJ has surpassed OBJ on the chemistry front. If OBJ goes back to running predictable routes, and Baker can finally find him, there is a chance for them to develop chemistry. But as far as we know, as of today, OBJ & Baker have no chemistry whatsoever and likely never will. The same goes for Hooper, though he has tried much harder than OBJ. Sometimes it just doesn’t happen. But again, the Browns do not lack chemistry! All they have to do is fucking deploy it!

In other OBJ Cult news, Mary Kay Cabot still thinks OBJ should be able to freelance his routes. Here’s what she wrote back here:

“In addition to building their friendship off the field, the two will have to compromise on the field. Mayfield likes his receivers to run precise routes so he can deliver the ball on a dime. Beckham, often double-teamed, freelances to get open, using every bit of his artistry and athleticism, and expects the QB to find him. This season, in addition to communicating about route details, ball placement and the like, they’ll need to come each other’s way a bit. It will help that both know the offense a lot better, but Mayfield will sometimes have to allow Beckham the freedom to get open — even though offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is on Team Precise Routes — and Beckham will have to sometimes be more disciplined in this timing offense.”

Compromise? What the hell no! This isn’t the NBA where players have much more power than NFL players. Didn’t you see the QB rebellion led by Aaron Rodgers this summer? He lost. The Browns have pissed away half of their Super Bowl window already by letting OBJ discombobulate Baker. Now, it’s time for Baker to be THE MAN and put OBJ on a short leash.

This is why I am for shedding OBJ instead of trying to rehab him: the stakes are just too high. The marvelous “point guard” style of play that we saw from Baker as he fed the ball to whoever was open just doesn’t have room for a psychologically disruptive prima-donna WR like OBJ.

If the higher-ups insist on keeping OBJ, the team has two lines of defense. First, we must pray for Coach O’Shea to succeed with his rehabilitation of OBJ’s route-running. Second, Baker has to acquire the skill of being psychologically impervious to any mental manipulation from OBJ. An example is sulky body-language when OBJ feels like he isn’t getting the ball enough. Baker needs to totally ignore that.

So, that is what we Browns fans need to hope for. As for you limbless Black Knights, instead of simply slobbering over OBJ, recognize that Baker is THE MAN, and that OBJ should run his routes to the letter and not try to influence Baker to get more targets.

P.S. The new “point guard” style that we saw Baker running during the second half of last season was not new. That’s how he played during his rookie year in 2018 when he set the NFL record for most TD passes by a rookie. He stopped playing like that when OBJ arrived.

Bad news everybody: The Browns have extended Paul DePodesta’s contract for 5 more years. The team’s “Destroyer of Chemistry” will continue his campaign to stamp out chemistry wherever he finds it. Why? Because he is a famous analytics guy, and chemistry does not compute. In fact, chemistry makes DePo and his bullshit spreadsheet look bad.

In 2018, Rashard Higgins and David Njoku became fan favorites by making many clutch plays with rookie QB Baker Mayfield. Both players were rewarded by being benched by DePo in 2019 and then again in 2020. Njoku asked to be traded, and Hig suffered in silence. Both players were unjustly persecuted.

In 2020, after a series of injuries to other receivers, the Browns finally had to let Hig play. And he (and Njoku) did as they always have: they were key in the Browns first playoff run in a very long time.

Their reward? Njoku clearly should be the #1 tight-end, but almost certainly will not. Hig should be a starter but will likely end up benched again. Both players will likely play behind their far more expensive, and lower-performing “upgrades” Austin Hooper and Odell Beckham, Jr. Two players that account for a mind-boggling waste of money.

In recent years, the Browns have become infamous for having lots of talent on paper, but surprisingly poor performance on the field. This, in retrospect, is exactly what you might expect of a team built with a fucking slide-rule.

Think about this: what if Njoku and Hig were starters for all of 2019 and 2020? Can you imagine how lethal Baker would be by now? And what if all those reps wasted on OBJ & Hooper had gone to train-up other, more-promising pass-catchers?

Sure, it’s easy to make such rear-view statements, but keep in mind that the Browns employed OBJ for 22 games of dogshit performance, hoping that he would start to click with Baker. He never did. Hope, was their plan. It didn’t work.

One thing we have learned is that you cannot parachute in a big-dollar, big-shot player and expect him to fit in. Providing pass-catchers to Baker just doesn’t work that way.

Hooper has tried very hard, but it doesn’t seem like he will ever approach the chemistry that Njoku has with Baker. Imagine two couples. Couple A is always finishing each other’s sentences. Couple B never finishes each other’s sentences, but think it is cool, so they start practicing doing so. What are the chances that they will be able to develop the same chemistry that Couple A has? Not very good, right? Are there any analytic techniques that might help them? Probably not.

This is why the Browns should move on from Hooper and OBJ. They need to stop ramming their head into the wall already. Like they say: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”

Coach O’Shea is retooling OBJ’s route running, and if anybody can fix OBJ, it is O’Shea. But there is copious evidence that Baker and Beckham are a Couple B.

Without DePodesta, Browns coaches would almost certainly pay more heed to the chemistry between Baker and his receivers.

I expect the Browns to have another good year, but not good enough to get Baker on the Hall-of-Fame track where he belongs. That can’t be done with an analytics nerd stripping Baker of his favorite targets.

Note: When Coaches Kitchens & Stefanski benched Hig & Njoku, they did not give reasons. This enraged fans. But my theory is that it was DePo who gave the orders and swore the coaches to silence.

The New York Giants are coming to Cleveland to practice with the Browns, and play a preseason game on August 22, 2021. And guess who they signed back in March: none other than reigning-champion speedster, John Ross, formerly of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Ross holds the 40-yard dash record, clocking in at 4.22 seconds at the 2017 NFL Scouting Combine. The fun part is that Browns’ rookie speedster Anthony Schwartz said that he would have broken that record if the NFL had not cancelled his combine due to COVID-19 fears.

So, why not have a little foot race in Berea? If the players are healthy and warmed up, and the field is in good shape, I don’t see the harm. After all, players are doing 40-yard dashes left-and-right as they run routes during practice.

Such a race would garner a good number of eyeballs.

For more info on the forty, see my Browns Player Speeds page.

The major drama in this year’s Browns preseason is: can the team persuade Odell Beckham, Jr. to run technically-correct routes so that Baker Mayfield can find him? OBJ prefers to do how he pleases, and run what he considers “creative” routes despite the statistical evidence that shows that such BS simply does not work.

Well, last week, OBJ bent the knee to his position coach, Chad O’Shea, and said in an interview that it was now up to him to fit into the new Browns offense that gelled while he was rehabbing his knee during last season.

As far as I can tell, no reporter has published OBJ’s comments, so I don’t have a link for you to follow. However, apparently, OBJ made his “fit in” comment on July 25, 2021, when he hosted a football ProCamp at Gilmour Academy in Gates Mills, Ohio.

This is fantastic news. Last year, the dysfunctional Baker-Beckham duo forced the Browns to run a tight-end heavy ground game. Once OBJ was injured, Baker was able to spread his wings and soar to elite levels, and the Browns adjusted their scheme to accommodate more passing.

If OBJ does his job correctly and becomes an asset to Baker instead of an albatross, the Browns can come out in Week 1 with both guns blazing.

Of course, just because OBJ is running technical routes doesn’t mean that he will develop chemistry with Baker. However, it does enable the possibility of it happening, though I wouldn’t bet on it. As the coaches tell us, it’s “time on task” that allows chemistry to develop, and OBJ’s knee precludes him from doing the required extra hundreds of practice reps with Baker.

In any case, with OBJ buying into the new technical mandate, the Browns’ coaches have taken all the necessary steps to field a world-class offense in Kansas City on September 12th. As long as Paul DePodesta doesn’t issue an edict benching two of Baker’s favorite targets, Rashard Higgins and David Njoku, the Browns will be in fine shape.